Susie
08-30-2007, 10:21 PM
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/08/30/gauging-the-impact-of-immigration/
Gauging the Impact of Immigration
June Kronholz reports on immigration.
Immigration proponents argue that the U.S. needs a constant source of new workers to offset the impending retirement of millions of baby boomers. With all those people leaving the workplace, they also argue, there will be fewer and fewer active workers to support Social Security.
But a new report by the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for less immigration, says the effect of current immigration levels on the overall age of the work force is negligible, and that even doubling immigration levels wouldn’t do much to bolster the Social Security worker-to-retiree ratio.
The center calculates that 68.8% of the U.S. population is between 15 and 66, which it defines as working age. With immigration of 300,000 a year — the current legal immigration level — the U.S. population would grow to 326 million in 2060 from the current 301 million, with 59.6% of the population of working age.
If the present legal and illegal immigration level continues — adding about 1.25 million people yearly — the center says the U.S. population would grow to 468 million in 2060. But there would be only a tiny increase in the percentage of working-age population, it says — to 60.7% of the population.
Doubling current immigration levels –and causing the total population to balloon to 573 million—would increase the working-age share to 61.3%. That is well below today’s level, although it also would mean millions more workers because of the bigger pool.
The report says the effect of increased immigration on the ratio of working-age to retirement-age people also would be small. There currently are 6.2 workers per retiree, the center says. That number will fall to 2.7 workers to each retiree in 2060 without any immigration. Adding 1.25 million immigrants a year would increase that ratio to 3.1 workers to retirees in 2060, and with double current immigration levels it would rise to 3.3 workers — still only about half the current level.
The center says that raising the retirement age would have a far bigger effect. A retirement age of 70 would increase the number of workers to 3.3 per retiree in 2060. That equates to adding 5.12 million immigrants a year, which also would increase the total population to 700 million in 2060, the center calculated.
Gauging the Impact of Immigration
June Kronholz reports on immigration.
Immigration proponents argue that the U.S. needs a constant source of new workers to offset the impending retirement of millions of baby boomers. With all those people leaving the workplace, they also argue, there will be fewer and fewer active workers to support Social Security.
But a new report by the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for less immigration, says the effect of current immigration levels on the overall age of the work force is negligible, and that even doubling immigration levels wouldn’t do much to bolster the Social Security worker-to-retiree ratio.
The center calculates that 68.8% of the U.S. population is between 15 and 66, which it defines as working age. With immigration of 300,000 a year — the current legal immigration level — the U.S. population would grow to 326 million in 2060 from the current 301 million, with 59.6% of the population of working age.
If the present legal and illegal immigration level continues — adding about 1.25 million people yearly — the center says the U.S. population would grow to 468 million in 2060. But there would be only a tiny increase in the percentage of working-age population, it says — to 60.7% of the population.
Doubling current immigration levels –and causing the total population to balloon to 573 million—would increase the working-age share to 61.3%. That is well below today’s level, although it also would mean millions more workers because of the bigger pool.
The report says the effect of increased immigration on the ratio of working-age to retirement-age people also would be small. There currently are 6.2 workers per retiree, the center says. That number will fall to 2.7 workers to each retiree in 2060 without any immigration. Adding 1.25 million immigrants a year would increase that ratio to 3.1 workers to retirees in 2060, and with double current immigration levels it would rise to 3.3 workers — still only about half the current level.
The center says that raising the retirement age would have a far bigger effect. A retirement age of 70 would increase the number of workers to 3.3 per retiree in 2060. That equates to adding 5.12 million immigrants a year, which also would increase the total population to 700 million in 2060, the center calculated.